Coinbase (COIN), the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, rose to prominence as digital assets went mainstream, becoming the gateway for millions diving into Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD), and the broader crypto universe. However, on May 8, the company unveiled a mixed Q1 earnings report, with both revenue and profit dipping as crypto trading cooled in early 2025. The slowdown was partly fueled by tariff concerns, and Coinbase has been ceding ground in market dominance.

Still, not everyone’s bearish. Optimism lingers, especially after its recent Deribit acquisition, which could strengthen its position in the crypto derivatives space. Amid the mixed signals, one forecast stands out - a bold $400 Street-high price target, given by Canaccord Genuity’s Joseph Vafi. 

The stock is hovering far below its peak. But with momentum flickering and bold bets being placed, could the path ahead really lead COIN stock to that lofty $400 mark?

About Coinbase Stock

Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Delaware, Coinbase (COIN) has grown into the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange. With a $50.6 billion market cap, it thrives on trading commissions, serving retail and institutional clients alike. Navigating volatility, Coinbase anchors itself as a key player shaping the future of digital finance with scale, strategy, and global reach.

Coinbase’s stock rode the crypto wave to a 52-week high of $349.75 last December, fueled by Bitcoin’s rally and pro-crypto signals from then President-elect Donald Trump. But the momentum faded fast. Market jitters, regulatory headwinds, and the sting of being left out of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) cooled investor enthusiasm. Since then, COIN has slipped more than 40% from that peak.

Still, it is up 2.7% over the past year, proving its staying power amid turbulence. And over the past month, shares jumped 18%, driven by renewed trading activity, a spike in Bitcoin prices, and optimism around its Deribit acquisition. 

Coinbase Misses Q1 Top- and Bottom-Line Projections

Last Thursday, the crypto exchange company reported its Q1 earnings results, and the story was mixed. It pulled in $2.03 billion in revenue, up 24% year over year, fueled by stronger transaction activity and rising demand for services like Coinbase One. Yet, Wall Street wasn’t impressed. Both its revenue and EPS of $0.24 missed estimates. Adjusted net income fell 23.3% annually to $1.94 per share.

Transaction revenue alone surged 18.2% to $1.3 billion, lifted by both consumer and institutional activity. Consumer trading volume jumped 39% from the year prior to $78 billion, though it dipped 17% from Q4. Institutional trading volume rose 23% annually to $315 billion but fell 8.7% sequentially.

Meanwhile, subscription and services revenue soared 36.3% to $698.1 million, largely thanks to strong stablecoin growth and the Coinbase One platform. April alone saw $240 million in transaction revenue, an encouraging start to Q2.

Management spotlighted Coinbase’s $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a global leader in crypto options, as a pivotal move to expand its derivatives presence and enhance cross-selling opportunities with institutional clients. CEO Brian Armstrong underscored the goal of unifying spot, futures, and options trading, while notingits  rising USD Coin (USDCUST) balances as a stable revenue stream. The deal is expected to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA and boost profitability by enabling seamless institutional trading across products.

Looking ahead, Coinbase flagged macro uncertainty and crypto price volatility as near-term headwinds. CFO Alesia Haas warned of early Q2 pressure on blockchain rewards and subscription revenue. Still, leadership remains bullish, citing a strong roadmap, global expansion, and regulatory clarity as tailwinds for long-term growth.

Coinbase expects subscription and services revenue to land between $600 million and $680 million in Q2.  

Analysts tracking Coinbase expect the company’s EPS to be around $6.75 in 2025, down 11.2% year-over-year before surging by 10.5% annually to $7.46 in 2026.

What Do Analysts Expect for Coinbase Stock?

Wall Street delivered a mixed verdict on Coinbase following its Q1 earnings miss and the Deribit acquisition. Some analysts, like Barclays’ Benjamin Buddish, raised the target price to $202, maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating on the stock. 

JPMorgan trimmed its target to $215, keeping a “Neutral” rating, while Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its target to $205, maintaining a “Market Perform” rating on COIN. Both lowered Coinbase’s Q2 and full-year revenue projections, citing falling fee rates and lighter institutional activity, while also noting a steep drop in institutional revenue and fees.

Canaccord’s analyst Joseph Vafi maintains a “Buy” rating and a $400 price target – the highest on Wall Street - suggesting growth potential of nearly 100%. The analyst pointed to Coinbase’s white-label “infrastructure-as-a-service” model as a future growth engine.

Despite short-term pressure, many analysts agree that Coinbase is still the crypto market’s gold standard. Wall Street leans bullish on COIN, with the stock having a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating overall. Out of the 26 analysts in coverage, nine recommend a “Strong Buy,” one advises a “Moderate Buy,” 14 play it safe with a “Hold,” and the remaining two bet against it with a “Strong Sell.”

COIN’s mean price target of $257.56 implies the stock has upside potential of 24% from the current price level.